A Black Swan event is something few people expect and which they discount as a possibility. The real estate crash of 2007-8 was very predictable, and a few people made fortunes by predicting it - but most bankers had discounted the problem, saying it was already "priced in."

So a few Black Swan events on their way.

1. Bird flu gets serious thanks to a mutation with an R number of 10 and an infected kill rate of 50%. Everybody's busy worrying about bird flu, but nobody is imagining it could get really bad because they don't want to.

2. Tactical nuclear war between India and Pakistan.

3. Tactical nuclear war between North Korea and Taiwan.

4. Here's a really out-to-lunch Black Swan - both Biden and Trump die (of bird flu?) before they get to the election.

5. Putin dies and is replaced by one of his stand-ins. Of course, this could have already happened.

6. The Yellowstone National Park volcano lets rip.

Have fun.