You can absolutely bet that the longer the elites play and the poor are immiserated, the more violent and dangerous the reset will be. The Western Roman empire pretty much collapsed in the 5th century, Byzantium managed to survive for another thousand years possibly due to the bureaucracy it inherited. The medieval world collapsed in the 16th century into civil and religious war. The French Ancien Regime also collapsed into revolution and mass-guillotining of elites. The British Empire collapsed quite slowly but hasn't finished yet - clearly, since we're still arguing the toss over slavery and Europe.

Have you read Peter Turchin's "End times"? If you haven't, you should read it now. I'm hunting for the rest of his books on the science of cliodynamics.